The Impact of Russian Military Threat to the Baltic States: Deterrence and Defence

Course date: 1-8 July 2017

The annexation of Crimea and military intervention in Eastern Ukraine, along with the ongoing military conflicts in the Middle East, have confirmed that hard power is still on political security agenda and Russia is generating a deep-rooted, long-term challenge to the West. Indeed, The Ukraine crisis rendered the Baltic region the focal point of tension between NATO and Russia. The NATO assurance measures adopted in the spring of 2014 were primarily directed towards the Baltic States and Poland.

As a result of military reform and heavy investment in rearmament and modernization, training and personnel, Russia has developed effective military capabilities, spread in the entire country but with higher concentration in the Western part.  This allows Russia to create a substantial offensive potential in the Baltics at any given time. Conventional superiority in the Baltic region is not in NATO’s favour.

From a Baltic perspective, [defense] planning has everything to do with Russia. This notion has been met with [skepticism] by some other NATO countries. German [defense] planners, for instance, pride themselves in not knowing where the next war will start, in stark contrast to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.

–Swedish Defense Research Agency

Course content

The course of Vilnius Summer School 2017 on military security aims to discuss the Russian foreign, security and defence policy and to analyze the capabilities of Russian military. The course will focus on the security situation in the Baltic region, giving a particular attention to the transformation of Russian military and its impact on the security and defence policy of the Baltic States. Moreover, in this course participants will be able to get understanding on the challenges NATO faces today and what NATO must do to counter them, what NATO and national strategies and capabilities must be in place to increase deterrence and defence in the Baltic region.

AGENDA

MILITARY SECURITY COURSE

TIME LECTURER

DAY 1

SATURDAY, 1 JULY 2017

18.00 – 21.00

Ms Jurgita Jakevičiūtė

Capt Erikas Kaukas

ORIENTATION | ICE BREAKING SESSION

WELCOME DINNER 

Venue: Arts Printing House (Šiltadaržio str. 6, Vilnius)

DAY 2   SUNDAY, 2 JULY 2017
11.00 – 13.30  

GUIDED TOUR AROUND OLD TOWN OF VILNIUS

Meeting Point: tbc

13.30 – 16.00   FREE TIME
16.00 – 17.30   TEAM BUILDING in PUZZLE ROOMS "nepabEXIT"
DAY 3   MONDAY, 3 JULY 2017
09.15 – 10.00

Mr Saulius Gasiūnas,

Ministry of National Defence of Lithuania

INTRODUCTION |Overview of security situation in the Baltic States

Venue: Arts Printing House (Šiltadaržio str. 6, Vilnius)

10.00 – 11.15

Mr Daivis Petraitis,

Ministry of National Defence of Lithuania

LECTURE | Russian Revolution in Military Affairs: New War-Waging Concepts “Gerasimov Doctrine”

Venue: Arts Printing House (Šiltadaržio str. 6, Vilnius)

11.30 – 12.45 LECTURE |Russian Revolution in Military Affairs: New Generation Weapons
12.45 – 14.00  

LUNCH

Venue: šv. Ignoto str. 6, Vilnius

14.00 – 15.15

Mr Daivis Petraitis,

Ministry of National Defence of Lithuania

LECTURE | Triangle of the United States, China and Russia: Consequences to the Security of Europe

Venue: Arts Printing House (Šiltadaržio str. 6, Vilnius)

15.30 – 16.45 LECTURE | The Development of Anti-Ballistic Missile System
17.30 – 19.00

Ms Rimantė Ribačiauskaitė

Head of Startup Lithuania

OPEN SESSION | Startups’ Buisiness Opportunities in Lithuania

Venue: Arts Printing House (Šiltadaržio str. 6, Vilnius)

DAY 4   TUESDAY, 4 JULY 2017
10.00 – 11.15

Mr Darius Tamauskas,

Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine

LECTURE | Ukraine Crisis: Perspective from Inside

Venue: Arts Printing House (Šiltadaržio str. 6, Vilnius)

11.30 – 12.45 LECTURE | Ukraine in Transition: Brand New Start
12.45 – 14.00   LUNCH
14.00 – 16.00

Lt Col Linas Idzelis,

Lithuanian Armed Forces

LECTURE | Information Operations as a Tool to Change People’s Behavior and Perception

Venue: Arts Printing House (Šiltadaržio str. 6, Vilnius)

17.30 – 19.00  Ms Rasa JuknevičienėMember of Lithuanian Parliament

OPEN SESSION | Strengthening National Resilience Against Hybrid Threats

Venue: Arts Printing House (Šiltadaržio str. 6, Vilnius)

DAY 5   WEDNESDAY, 5 JULY 2017
10.00 – 11.15

Mr Jörgen Elfving,

Sweden Expert on Russia

LECTURE | Building Russian Military Capabilities: Plans vs Reality

Venue: Arts Printing House (Šiltadaržio str. 6, Vilnius)

11.30 – 12.45 LECTURE | Securing the Nordic-Baltic Region
12.45 – 14.00  

LUNCH

Venue: šv. Ignoto str. 6, Vilnius

14.00 – 15.15

Mr Jörgen Elfving,

Sweden Expert on Russia

LECTURE | Sweden: From a Nation in Arms to Expeditionary Warfare and Back Again
15.30 – 16.45 WORKSHOP | Russian Military Power
17.30 – 19.00   OPEN SESSION | MEETING WITH REPRESENTATIVES OF UNIVERSITIES (tbc)
DAY 6   THURSDAY, 6 JULY 2017
    STATEHOOD DAY | FREE DAY
DAY 7   FRIDAY, 7 JULY 2017
10.00 – 11.15

 

Dr Gražvydas Jasutis,

Military Academy of Lithuania

LECTURE | Application of Conflict Analysis Instruments in the Post-Soviet Space

Venue: Arts Printing House (Šiltadaržio str. 6, Vilnius)

11.30 – 12.45 LECTURE | Understanding of Conflict Stages: Different Countries and Different Attitudes
12.45 – 14.00  

LUNCH

Venue: šv. Ignoto str. 6, Vilnius

14.00 – 15.15

 

Dr Gražvydas Jasutis,

Military Academy of Lithuania

LECTURE | The Role of Identity in Conflict Management: The Case of the Baltic States
15.30 – 16.45 LECTURE | Needs, Positions and Interests in Conflict Resolution
18.00 – 19.00  

FINAL REMARKS |AWARDING CEREMONY

Venue: Arts Printing House (Šiltadaržio str. 6, Vilnius)

20.00  

FAREWELL PARTY

Venue: Vilnius Old Town (tbc)

DAY 8   SATURDAY, 8 JULY 2017
    DEPARTURE

Information is currently being updated...