The Impact of Russian Military Threat to the Baltic States: Deterrence and Defence

Course date: 7-14 July 2018

The annexation of Crimea and military intervention in Eastern Ukraine, along with the ongoing military conflicts in the Middle East, have confirmed that hard power is still on political security agenda and Russia is generating a deep-rooted, long-term challenge to the West. Indeed, The Ukraine crisis rendered the Baltic region the focal point of tension between NATO and Russia. The NATO assurance measures adopted in the spring of 2014 were primarily directed towards the Baltic States and Poland.

As a result of military reform and heavy investment in rearmament and modernization, training and personnel, Russia has developed effective military capabilities, spread in the entire country but with higher concentration in the Western part.  This allows Russia to create a substantial offensive potential in the Baltics at any given time. Conventional superiority in the Baltic region is not in NATO’s favour.

From a Baltic perspective, [defense] planning has everything to do with Russia. This notion has been met with [skepticism] by some other NATO countries. German [defense] planners, for instance, pride themselves in not knowing where the next war will start, in stark contrast to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.

–Swedish Defense Research Agency

Course content

The course of Vilnius Summer School 2017 on military security aims to discuss the Russian foreign, security and defence policy and to analyze the capabilities of Russian military. The course will focus on the security situation in the Baltic region, giving a particular attention to the transformation of Russian military and its impact on the security and defence policy of the Baltic States. Moreover, in this course participants will be able to get understanding on the challenges NATO faces today and what NATO must do to counter them, what NATO and national strategies and capabilities must be in place to increase deterrence and defence in the Baltic region.

PROGRAMME

DAY 1

SATURDAY, 7 JULY 2018

   

18.00 – 21.00

Ms Jurgita Jakevičiūtė

Capt Erikas Kaukas

ORIENTATION | ICE BREAKING SESSION

WELCOME COCKTAIL

DAY 2

SUNDAY, 8 JULY 2018

   

10.00 – 12.30

 

TOUR AROUND OLD TOWN OF VILNIUS

12.30 – 15.00

 

FREE TIME

15.00 – 19.00

 

TEAM BUILDING in PUZZLE ROOMS

DAY 3

MONDAY, 9 JULY 2018

   

09.00 – 09.50

 

INTRODUCTION |Overview of Security Situation in the Baltic States

10.00 – 10.50

Mr Daivis Petraitis,

Ministry of National Defence of Lithuania

LECTURE | Russian Revolution in Military Affairs: New Russian Forces and Rearmament

11.00 – 11.50

12.00 – 12.50

 

PRACTICAL SESSION & DISCUSSION

12.50 – 14.00

 

LUNCH

14.00 – 14.50

Mr Daivis Petraitis,

Ministry of National Defence of Lithuania

LECTURE | Russian Revolution in Military Affairs: New War-Waging Concepts “Gerasimov Doctrine“

15.00 – 15.50

16.00 – 16.50

 

PRACTICAL SESSION & DISCUSSION

DAY 4

TUESDAY, 10 JULY 2018

   

10.00 – 10.50

 

LECTURE | Ukraine Crisis: Perspective from Inside

11.00 – 11.50

12.00 – 12.50

12.50 – 14.00

 

LUNCH

14.00 – 14.50

Lt Col Linas Idzelis,
Lithuanian Armed Forces

LECTURE | Information Operations as a Tool to Change People’s Behavior and Perception

15.00 – 15.50

16.00 – 16.50

 

WORKSHOP

17.30 – 19.00

 

OPEN SESSION | Strengthening National Resilience Against Hybrid Threats  

DAY 5

WEDNESDAY, 11 JULY 2018

   

10.00 – 10.50

Mr Jörgen Elfving,

Sweden Expert on Russia

LECTURE | Building Russian Military Capabilities: Plans vs Reality

11.00 – 11.50

12.00 – 12.50

LECTURE | Sweden: From a Nation in Arms to Expeditionary Warfare and Back Again

12.50 – 14.00

 

LUNCH

14.00 – 14.50

Mr Jörgen Elfving,

Sweden Expert on Russia

LECTURE | Securing the Nordic-Baltic Region

15.00 – 15.50

16.00 – 16.50

 

WORKSHOP | Russian Military Power

DAY 6

THURSDAY, 12 JULY 2018

   
   

FREE DAY

DAY 7

FRIDAY, 13 JULY 2018

   

10.00 – 10.50

 

LECTURE | Security Situation in The Baltic Sea Region and NATO's Contribution to The Enhancement of Its Security

11.00 – 11.50

12.00 – 12.50

 

PRACTICAL SESSION & DISCUSSION

12.50 – 14.00

 

LUNCH

14.00 – 14.50

 

JOINT LECTURE | NATO’s Role in Energy Security: Civil/Military Approach

15.00 – 15.50

 

PRACTICAL SESSION & DISCUSSION

16.30 – 17.00

 

FINAL REMARKS |AWARDING CEREMONY

20.00

 

FAREWELL EVENING

DAY 8

SATURDAY, 14 JULY 2018

   
   

DEPARTURE

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