The Impact of Russian Military Threat to the Baltic States: Deterrence and Defence

Course date: 6-13 July 2019

The annexation of Crimea and military intervention in Eastern Ukraine, along with the ongoing military conflicts in the Middle East, have confirmed that hard power is still on political security agenda and Russia is generating a deep-rooted, long-term challenge to the West. Indeed, The Ukraine crisis rendered the Baltic region the focal point of tension between NATO and Russia. The NATO assurance measures adopted in the spring of 2014 were primarily directed towards the Baltic States and Poland.

As a result of military reform and heavy investment in rearmament and modernization, training and personnel, Russia has developed effective military capabilities, spread in the entire country but with higher concentration in the Western part.  This allows Russia to create a substantial offensive potential in the Baltics at any given time. Conventional superiority in the Baltic region is not in NATO’s favour.

From a Baltic perspective, [defense] planning has everything to do with Russia. This notion has been met with [skepticism] by some other NATO countries. German [defense] planners, for instance, pride themselves in not knowing where the next war will start, in stark contrast to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.

–Swedish Defense Research Agency

Course content

The course of Vilnius Summer School 2019 on military security aims to discuss the Russian foreign, security and defence policy and to analyze the capabilities of Russian military. The course will focus on the security situation in the Baltic region, giving a particular attention to the transformation of Russian military and its impact on the security and defence policy of the Baltic States. Moreover, in this course participants will be able to get understanding on the challenges NATO faces today and what NATO must do to counter them, what NATO and national strategies and capabilities must be in place to increase deterrence and defence in the Baltic region.

PROGRAMME

SATURDAY, 6 JULY
18.00 – 20.00 Ms Jurgita Jakevičiūtė

Dr Erikas Kaukas

ORIENTATION | ICE BREAKING SESSION

WELCOME COCKTAIL

Venue: Arts Printing House (Šiltadaržio str. 6)

SUNDAY, 7 JULY
10.00 – 12.30 TOUR AROUND OLD TOWN OF VILNIUS

Meeting Point: Gate of Dawn (Aušros Vartų str. 14)

12.30 – 14.00 FREE TIME
14.00 – 15.30 TEAM BUILDING in PUZZLE ROOMS

Meeting Point: tbd

MONDAY, 8 JULY
09.00 – 09.50 Mr Saulius Gasiūnas

Ministry of National Defence of Lithuania

INTRODUCTION |Overview of Security Situation in the Baltic States

Venue: Arts Printing House, Pocket Hall, ground floor (Šiltadaržio str. 6)

10.00 – 10.50 Mr Daivis Petraitis,

Ministry of National Defence of Lithuania

LECTURE | Russian Revolution in Military Affairs: Structural Reform and New Forces, the Essence of Rearmament

Venue: Arts Printing House, Pocket Hall, ground floor (Šiltadaržio str. 6)

11.00 – 11.50
12.00 – 14.00 LUNCH

Venue: Restaurant „La Boheme“ (Šv. Ignoto str. 4)

14.00 – 14.50 Mr Daivis Petraitis,

Ministry of National Defence of Lithuania

LECTURE | Russian Revolution in Military Affairs: New War-Waging Concepts and Russian Military Peculiarities “ZAPAD 2017 as an Example”
15.00 – 15.50
16.00 – 16.50 PRACTICAL SESSION & DISCUSSION
TUESDAY, 9 JULY
10.00 – 10.50 Dr Deividas Šlekys

Associate Professor at Vilnius University and Lithuanian Military Academy

LECTURE | Dynamics of Regional Security and Defence Policy in the Face of External Threats

Venue: Arts Printing House, Pocket Hall, ground floor (Šiltadaržio str. 6)

11.00 – 11.50
12.00 – 14.00 LUNCH

Venue: Restaurant „La Boheme“ (Šv. Ignoto str. 4)

14.00 – 14.50 Lt Col Linas Idzelis

Lithuanian Armed Forces

LECTURE | Information Operations as a Tool to Change People’s Behavior and Perception

Venue: Arts Printing House, Pocket Hall, ground floor (Šiltadaržio str. 6)

15.00 – 15.50
16.00 – 16.50 PRACTICAL SESSION & DISCUSSION
WEDNESDAY, 10 JULY
10.00 – 10.50 Mr Jörgen Elfving,

Sweden Expert on Russia

LECTURE | Building Russian Military Capabilities: Plans vs Reality

Venue: Arts Printing House, Pocket Hall, ground floor (Šiltadaržio str. 6)

11.00 – 11.50
12.00 – 14.00   LUNCH

Venue: Restaurant „La Boheme“ (Šv. Ignoto str. 4)

14.00 – 14.50 Mr Jörgen Elfving,

Sweden Expert on Russia

LECTURE | Securing the Nordic-Baltic Region
15.00 – 15.50
16.00 – 16.50 WORKSHOP | Russian Military Power
THURSDAY, 11 JULY
11.00 – 15.00 SITE VISIT | Lithuanian Grand Duke Gediminas Staff Battalion (Note: the visit will start with lunch)

Meeting Point (a bus takes from): Odminių square next to Amberton Cathedral Square Hotel Vilnius

Meeting Time: 11.00

 

FRIDAY, 12 JULY
10.00 – 10.50 Mr Darius Tamauskas

The World Bank

LECTURE | Post Maidan Ukraine: Revolution, War, Reforms

Venue: Arts Printing House, Pocket Hall, ground floor (Šiltadaržio str. 6)

11.00 – 11.50
12.00 – 14.00 LUNCH

Venue: Restaurant „La Boheme“ (Šv. Ignoto str. 4)

14.00 – 14.50 Col. Jakob Søgård Larsen Commander of NATO Force Integration Unit in Lithuania JOINT LECTURE | NATO's Contribution to The Enhancement of the Baltic Sea Region’s Security

Venue: Arts Printing House, Pocket Hall, ground floor (Šiltadaržio str. 6)

15.00 – 15.50 PRACTICAL SESSION & DISCUSSION
16.30 – 17.00 AWARDING CEREMONY

Venue: Arts Printing House, Studio II, 1st floor (Šiltadaržio str. 6)

19.00 FAREWELL EVENING

Venue: Bar „KAS KAS“ (Islandijos str. 4, Vilnius)

SATURDAY, 13 JULY
DEPARTURE

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