The Impact of Russian Military Threat to the Baltic States: Deterrence and Defence

Course date: 7-14 July 2018

The annexation of Crimea and military intervention in Eastern Ukraine, along with the ongoing military conflicts in the Middle East, have confirmed that hard power is still on political security agenda and Russia is generating a deep-rooted, long-term challenge to the West. Indeed, The Ukraine crisis rendered the Baltic region the focal point of tension between NATO and Russia. The NATO assurance measures adopted in the spring of 2014 were primarily directed towards the Baltic States and Poland.

As a result of military reform and heavy investment in rearmament and modernization, training and personnel, Russia has developed effective military capabilities, spread in the entire country but with higher concentration in the Western part.  This allows Russia to create a substantial offensive potential in the Baltics at any given time. Conventional superiority in the Baltic region is not in NATO’s favour.

From a Baltic perspective, [defense] planning has everything to do with Russia. This notion has been met with [skepticism] by some other NATO countries. German [defense] planners, for instance, pride themselves in not knowing where the next war will start, in stark contrast to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.

–Swedish Defense Research Agency

Course content

The course of Vilnius Summer School 2018 on military security aims to discuss the Russian foreign, security and defence policy and to analyze the capabilities of Russian military. The course will focus on the security situation in the Baltic region, giving a particular attention to the transformation of Russian military and its impact on the security and defence policy of the Baltic States. Moreover, in this course participants will be able to get understanding on the challenges NATO faces today and what NATO must do to counter them, what NATO and national strategies and capabilities must be in place to increase deterrence and defence in the Baltic region.

PROGRAMME

DAY 1

SATURDAY, 7 JULY

18.00 – 21.00 Ms Jurgita Jakevičiūtė

Dr Erikas Kaukas

ORIENTATION | ICE BREAKING SESSION

WELCOME COCKTAIL

DAY 2

SUNDAY, 8 JULY

10.00 – 12.30 TOUR AROUND OLD TOWN OF VILNIUS
12.30 – 15.00 FREE TIME
15.00 – 19.00 TEAM BUILDING in PUZZLE ROOMS
DAY 3

MONDAY, 9 JULY

09.00 – 09.50  Mr Saulius Gasiūnas

Ministry of National Defence of Lithuania

INTRODUCTION |Overview of Security Situation in the Baltic States
10.00 – 10.50 Mr Daivis Petraitis

Ministry of National Defence of Lithuania

LECTURE | Russian Revolution in Military Affairs: New Russian Forces and Rearmament
11.00 – 11.50
12.00 – 12.50 PRACTICAL SESSION & DISCUSSION
12.50 – 14.00 LUNCH
14.00 – 14.50 Mr Daivis Petraitis

Ministry of National Defence of Lithuania

LECTURE | Russian Revolution in Military Affairs: New War-Waging Concepts “Gerasimov Doctrine“
15.00 – 15.50
16.00 – 16.50 PRACTICAL SESSION & DISCUSSION
DAY 4

TUESDAY, 10 JULY

10.00 – 10.50 Dr Deividas Šlekys

Associate Professor at Vilnius University and Lithuanian Military Academy

LECTURE | Dynamics of Regional Security and Defence Policy in the Face of External Threats
11.00 – 11.50
12.00 – 12.50 PRACTICAL SESSION & DISCUSSION
12.50 – 14.00 LUNCH
14.00 – 14.50 Lt Col Linas Idzelis

Lithuanian Armed Forces

LECTURE | Information Operations as a Tool to Change People’s Behavior and Perception
15.00 – 15.50
16.00 – 16.50 PRACTICAL SESSION & DISCUSSION
17.30 – 19.00 OPEN SESSION | Strengthening National Resilience Against Hybrid Threats  
DAY 5

WEDNESDAY, 11 JULY

10.00 – 10.50 Mr Jörgen Elfving

Sweden Expert on Russia

LECTURE | Building Russian Military Capabilities: Plans vs Reality
11.00 – 11.50
12.00 – 12.50 LECTURE | Sweden: From a Nation in Arms to Expeditionary Warfare and Back Again
12.50 – 14.00   LUNCH
14.00 – 14.50 Mr Jörgen Elfving

Sweden Expert on Russia

LECTURE | Securing the Nordic-Baltic Region
15.00 – 15.50
16.00 – 16.50 WORKSHOP | Russian Military Power
DAY 6

THURSDAY, 12 JULY 2018

FREE DAY
DAY 7

FRIDAY, 13 JULY

10.00 – 10.50 LECTURE | NATO's Contribution to The Enhancement of the Baltic Sea Region’s Security
11.00 – 11.50
12.00 – 12.50 PRACTICAL SESSION & DISCUSSION
12.50 – 14.00 LUNCH
14.00 – 14.50 JOINT LECTURE | NATO’s Role in Energy Security: Civil/Military Approach
15.00 – 15.50 PRACTICAL SESSION & DISCUSSION
16.30 – 17.00 FINAL REMARKS |AWARDING CEREMONY
20.00 FAREWELL EVENING
DAY 8

SATURDAY, 14 JULY

DEPARTURE

 

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